Horizon | Political Prediction Markets

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1,156

Persons

674

Events

95,544

Snapshots

Crisis Score

Active Signals

CONVERGENT PROBABILITY MEDIUM (5)

Events with multiple markets near 50%

• Will Warren Davidson vote for the next omnibus spending bill... (8 markets)

• Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2... (6 markets)

• Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before J... (5 markets)

ROLE UNCERTAINTY HIGH (4)

Roles with contested succession

• Party Nominee: 101 candidates Will David Hann (6%), Wil Mark Wheeler (9%), Wil Dakarai Larriett (24%)

• SCOTUS Justice: 5 candidates James Comey (17%), Will Andrew Oldham (22%), Will Amul Tharpar (15%)

• POTUS: 4 candidates Will Donald Trump (15%), Will Joe Manchin (25%), Will Bernie Sanders (8%)

• Fed Chair: 3 candidates Will John Hickenlooper (34%), Will Jeanne Shaheen (33%), Maggie Hassan (35%)

INSTITUTIONAL STRESS LOW (4)

Institutions under multiple event pressure

• Congress: 248 events

• Supreme Court: 19 events

• Executive Branch: 10 events

• Federal Reserve: 10 events